ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME MORE WELL-DEFINED AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERALL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB AND AFWA ARE 2.5 WHICH SUPPORTS 35 KT FOR THE CURRENT INTENSITY. THEREFORE THE CYCLONE IS UPGRADED TO THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON. CONTINUED GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A LA THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SINCE THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE TIME OVER WARM WATERS...WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. BLAS IS LIKELY TO SPIN DOWN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...310/13...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE. THE MAIN ISSUE REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST IS THE GLOBAL MODELS' DEPICTION OF ANOTHER VORTEX TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BLAS. THIS SECONDARY VORTEX...IF IT EXISTS...APPEARS TO BE OVERDONE IN THE MODELS' INITIALIZATION. IF THAT IS TRUE THEN THE TRACK GUIDANCE MAY BE INFLUENCED BY AN ARTIFICIAL FUJIWHARA-TYPE INTERACTION WITH THE SECONDARY VORTEX. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE...CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL EXPECTATION. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT BLAS IS A LARGER-THAN AVERAGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE 120 N MI WIND RADII MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0300Z 16.8N 108.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 13/1200Z 18.0N 110.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 14/0000Z 19.6N 112.2W 50 KT 36HR VT 14/1200Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT 48HR VT 15/0000Z 22.0N 116.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 16/0000Z 23.0N 120.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 17/0000Z 24.0N 123.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 18/0000Z 24.0N 127.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 13-Jul-2004 02:32:22 UTC