ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT MON JUL 12 2004 THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN AS IT IS OBSCURED BY CLOUDS AND IS PERHAPS BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/11. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS SHOW A MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD MOTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEARLY STATIONARY MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS INDICATED BY 96 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INTRODUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY BY SHOWING AN INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION. THIS CYCLONE TO THE WEST CURRENTLY DOES NOT APPEAR TO EXIST. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SSTS LESS THAN 26 DEGREES CENTIGRADE. BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING TO NEAR 50 KNOTS FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COLDER WATER IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 12/2100Z 15.8N 107.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 13/0600Z 16.9N 108.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 13/1800Z 18.7N 111.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 14/0600Z 20.2N 113.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 14/1800Z 21.5N 115.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 15/1800Z 23.5N 119.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 16/1800Z 25.0N 122.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 17/1800Z 25.0N 126.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 12-Jul-2004 20:42:20 UTC