ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT MON MAY 24 2004 THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AGATHA AT THE PRESENT TIME. THIS SYSTEM MAY GENERATE SOME INTERMITTENT AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION BUT IT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN 25 DEG C. DEGENERATION TO A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY LATER TODAY. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY REQUIRES A RELOCATION OF AGATHA EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 330/3. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIVERSITY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AS STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT WELL DEFINED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN CALLING FOR LITTLE OVERALL MOTION OF THE DISSIPATING SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 19.1N 111.1W 30 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 19.5N 111.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 25/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 26/0000Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Jul-2004 17:31:57 UTC