Tropical Storm AGATHA

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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN MAY 23 2004
 
THE CENTER OF AGATHA IS NOT APPARENT IN VISIBLE OR INFRARED
IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THE MOTION HAS
SLOWED OR EVEN STALLED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/3. 
DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED AND SHAPELESS...AND WESTERLY SHEAR IS
EVIDENT OVER THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE SINCE THIS MORNING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE
REMAINS 40 KT.

MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME RATHER DIVERSE THIS AFTERNOON.  THE NOGAPS
TURNS AGATHA WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER ABOUT 12 HOURS...WHILE THE
GFS TRACK IS NORTH THEN NORTHWESTWARD.  BOTH THE UKMET AND GFDL
TAKE THE CYCLONE NORTH AND THEN EASTWARD.  GIVEN THE SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT...THE ULTIMATE TRACK WILL DEPEND TO SOME EXTENT ON HOW
MUCH DEEP CONVECTION AND VERTICAL CONTINUITY AGATHA CAN MAINTAIN. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE.

AGATHA IS OVER 26C SSTS AND HEADED...ALBEIT SLOWLY...FOR COOLER
WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. A GRADUAL SPINDOWN IS THEREFORE
EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. AGATHA IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A
NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48-72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 18.3N 110.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 18.9N 110.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 19.8N 110.5W    30 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 110.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 20.5N 111.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 20.8N 111.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z 21.0N 112.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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