Tropical Storm AGATHA

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TROPICAL STORM AGATHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT MAY 22 2004

A BURSTING CDO FEATURE HAS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING.  DVORAK INTENSITY
T NUMBERS OF 3.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND KGWC ARE THE BASIS FOR
INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 45 KNOTS. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
MUCH STRENGTHENING SO THE WIND SPEED IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 50
KNOTS IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER
AS COOLER SSTS ARE ENCOUNTERED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/06.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY SLOW MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS UNDER WEAK
STEERING CURRENTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR A SLOW
NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT BECOMING STATIONARY AFTER 72 HOURS AND IS
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO AGREE
MORE WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. 

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 17.4N 110.0W    45 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 18.1N 110.3W    50 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 18.7N 110.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 19.0N 110.6W    45 KT
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 19.2N 110.7W    40 KT
 72HR VT     26/0000Z 19.3N 110.8W    35 KT
 96HR VT     27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    25 KT
120HR VT     28/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W    25 KT
 
 
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