ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE NOV 30 2004 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS BECOME MORE CONSOLIDATED. THE DEEP CONVECTION IS RATHER LIMITED...AND SHIP REPORTS AND QUIKSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL SOMEWHAT BROAD. HOWEVER MICROWAVE DATA AND CYCLONE PHASE ANALYSES FROM THE FSU/PSU WEB PAGE SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A WARM CORE. THUS THE CYCLONE HAS ENOUGH TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF TROPICAL STORM ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. THE STORM IS OVER RATHER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEREFORE NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN LATER IN THE PERIOD. CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWARD AROUND 4 KT. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW WHICH SHOULD CAUSE AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION TO DEVELOP SOON. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS AND SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 31.8N 51.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 32.2N 50.7W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 32.0N 50.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 31.5N 49.3W 40 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 31.0N 48.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 03/1800Z 31.0N 46.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 04/1800Z 31.0N 45.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 05/1800Z 31.0N 43.0W 20 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-Nov-2004 20:33:50 UTC