ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON OCT 11 2004 NICOLE HAS TRIED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...AS A PERSISTENT CLUSTER OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHILE AMSU OVERPASSES FROM SUNDAY EVENING INDICATED A WARM CORE MIGHT BE PRESENT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF CONVECTION TRYING TO WRAP AROUND THE CENTER OR OF ANY ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. INDEED...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WESTERLY JET STREAK IS APPROACHING THE CENTER...WHICH IS NOT EXACTLY THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN OF A SYSTEM COMPLETING TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS...NICOLE REMAINS A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH 40 KT WINDS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT EXTRATROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING NEAR SABLE ISLAND...WHERE THE PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 1001 MB AS OF 08Z. DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL MERGE NICOLE WITH THIS LOW IN 24 HR OR LESS...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS DIFFER ON WHICH CYCLONE WOULD BE DOMINANT DURING THE MERGER. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE THE SAME...A RATHER VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR NICOLE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING EVEN WHILE LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...FOLLOWED BY MERGER WITH THE LARGER LOW AFTER 24 HR. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT NICOLE MAY NOT SURVIVE FOR EVEN 24 HR. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/16. ALL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT NICOLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BEFORE MERGER WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OCCURS...AND THIS IS FOLLOWED IN THE TRACK FORECAST. IF NICOLE MOVES FASTER OR LASTS LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...IT MAY DO A LEFT HOOK AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LARGER LOW BEFORE THE MERGER IS COMPLETE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0900Z 34.9N 63.6W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1800Z 38.4N 62.8W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 24HR VT 12/0600Z 41.5N 63.5W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 12/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Oct-2004 08:53:55 UTC