ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SUBTROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN OCT 10 2004 WHILE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...NICOLE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SUBTROPICAL STORM AS INDICATED BY A RECENT PRESSURE REPORT OF 995 MB FROM BERMUDA. AS IS THE CASE WITH SUBTROPICAL CYCLONES...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH NICOLE IS DISPLACED WELL EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...AS THAT BAND PASSED OVER BERMUDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...IT CONTAINED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 37-38 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 KT. THEREFORE...AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY. WIND RADII WERE TRIMMED BACK TO THE WEST AND EXPANDED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE BERMUDA OBSERVATIONS AND A 10/2244Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/13. NICOLE IS MOVING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. SOUTHEASTWARD TO SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF AN EVEN DEEPER LOW/TROUGH FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR THE CAPE COD AREA IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. THIS DEVELOPING FLOW PATTERN SHOULD ACT TO LIFT NICOLE NORTHWARD BY 12-18 HOURS... AND THEN POSSIBLY HOOK THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE UPPER-LOW MOVES OVER OR NEAR THE NICOLE SURFACE CIRCULATION IN 24-36H. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THIS EVOLVING SCENARIO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST EAST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION. NICOLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS... IF NOT SOONER. HOWEVER...IN THE 36-48 HOUR TIME PERIOD...SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS AND BAROCLINIC EFFECTS SHOULD KICK IN AS THE UPPER-LOW BECOMES SUPERIMPOSED ON TOP OF THE RELATIVELY WARMER LOWER LAYERS OF THE NICOLE CIRCULATION. THE RESULT COULD BE A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL STORM SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS JUST EAST OF THE U.S. NEW ENGLAND AREA...ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE WARM GULFSTREAM. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/0300Z 33.1N 65.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 11/1200Z 36.4N 63.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/0000Z 40.3N 63.4W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 12/1200Z 42.3N 63.8W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 13/0000Z 42.3N 65.0W 55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 14/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Oct-2004 02:53:58 UTC