ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 51 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT FRI OCT 01 2004 DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES PEAKED AT 4.0 T NUMBERS AT 18Z AND HAVE NOW DECREASED TO 3.5 T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE SOME ELEMENTS PRESENT OF AN EYE-TYPE FEATURE. ALSO A 21Z HI-RES QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF 55 KNOTS. SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 60 KNOTS. WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS ALREADY SEEN TO BE IMPINGING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. SO WITH COLDER SSTS AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD...LISA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/16. LISA IS EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE MOSTLY EASTWARD BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL TRACK MODELS. THE GFS SUGGESTS A MERGER BETWEEN LISA AND AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM WHICH IS PROBABLY THE REMNANT OF JEANNE WHILE THE UKMET KEEPS SEPARATE SYSTEMS. IN EITHER CASE...LISA IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS IN 24 HOURS OR SO. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 39.6N 42.8W 60 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 41.5N 39.5W 55 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 44.2N 32.6W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 36HR VT 03/1200Z 45.6N 23.8W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 48HR VT 04/0000Z 46.5N 13.2W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 72HR VT 05/0000Z...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Saturday, 02-Oct-2004 02:23:51 UTC