ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004 THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND HURRICANE KARL IS WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED TO BE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS INCREASE THE WIND SPEED BY 20 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGRESSIVE...ONLY INCREASING THE WIND TO 45 KT. THIS IS BASED ON THE SUGGESTION ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT THE OUTFLOW FROM KARL IS IMPINGING ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEPRESSIONS CONVECTION AND MAY HAVE AN INHIBITING EFFECT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/06. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT REPRESENTED WELL IN THE GFS AND IN SEVERAL OTHER MODELS. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY IS FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 120 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LEFT BY HURRICANE KARL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE GFDL MODEL. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 13.3N 33.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 13.6N 34.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 14.6N 37.2W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 15.8N 39.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.1N 41.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 19.0N 44.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 21.5N 46.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 24/1800Z 25.0N 48.0W 40 KT $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 20:53:54 UTC