ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004 AS IT DID LAST NIGHT ABOUT THIS TIME...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KARL HAS DETERIORATED A BIT...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND A SPREADING OUT OF THE COLDEST CORE CLOUD TOPS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM NEAR 0Z THAT SUGGESTED ANOTHER EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WAS OCCURRING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 110 KT...BUT KARL WILL HAVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE IT IS OVER WARM WATER AND UNDER LIGHT SHEAR. AFTER THAT...WESTERLY SHEAR FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL EXTRATROPICAL TROUGH WILL BE ENCOUNTERED FIRST...FOLLOWED BY COLDER SSTS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A STILL POTENT KARL MERGES WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. KARL IS EXPECTED TO SOON BEGIN TO MAKE A RIGHT TURN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. THE FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A BIT OF A BEND TO THE LEFT TO REFLECT MORE OF AN INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 17.3N 45.5W 110 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 17.9N 46.8W 110 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 19.3N 48.4W 120 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.1N 49.6W 125 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 23.5N 50.0W 125 KT 72HR VT 23/0600Z 29.5N 48.5W 115 KT 96HR VT 24/0600Z 38.0N 44.0W 95 KT 120HR VT 25/0600Z 49.0N 43.0W 65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Sep-2004 08:43:30 UTC