ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004 KARL SEEMS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF FOR NOW. INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC ARE 115/102/102 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM OVER ALL IS EXCELLENT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 115 KNOTS. THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...290/10. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARD... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG 57W IS FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE AND PULL THE HURRICANE NORTHWARD ON A RATHER SHARP RECURVATURE NEAR 50W. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL CONSENSUS. KARL IS ON THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE WITH LITTLE SHEAR. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 48 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH HAS PERFORMED WELL FOR THE CYCLONE. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT KARL WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER NEAR ITS RECURVATURE POINT WHERE THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS OFTEN REACHED. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 17.2N 45.1W 115 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.9N 46.5W 120 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W 125 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 20.7N 49.5W 130 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 22.8N 50.3W 130 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 28.9N 49.4W 115 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 25/0000Z 46.0N 42.0W 80 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Sep-2004 02:43:31 UTC