ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/09. KARL IS MOVING SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGE AND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE COLD LOW. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING A TRACK AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY ACCELERATION IN FORWARD SPEED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE COLD LOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE EYE IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING AND IS EMBEDDED IN A PERSISTENT COLD CDO FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 115/102/102 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 110 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES 15 KT OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING AND THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS 10 KT UNDER LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR 10 MORE KT...BUT THE WIND SPEED COULD CERTAINLY GO HIGHER. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 16.4N 42.9W 110 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 16.8N 44.3W 115 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 17.7N 46.1W 120 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 18.9N 47.3W 120 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.6N 48.4W 120 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 25.4N 48.9W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/1200Z 32.5N 46.0W 105 KT 120HR VT 24/1200Z 41.0N 42.0W 90 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 14:23:18 UTC