ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT SEP 18 2004 KARL HAS WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DIRECTION AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING AT 290/10. THE FORECAST REASONING IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF KARL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY AN APPROACHING AMPLIFYING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW KARL TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ERODED RIDGE AND THEN MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 4 OR 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 102/102/90 KT FROM TAFB/SAB/KGWC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 100 KT. THIS MAKES KARL THE FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2004 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE EYE DIAMETER HAS GOTTEN SMALLER DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...SUGGESTING THAT THE STORM IS STRENGTHENING...WHICH THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ABOVE CONFIRM. A 2357Z MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO GAVE SUPPORTING EVIDENCE FOR THIS...SHOWING A DOUBLE EYEWALL WITH THE INNER EYE JUST ABOUT TO COLLAPSE AND DISAPPEAR. THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SCENARIO REQUIRES THE WIND SPEED TO DECREASE AS THE OUTER EYE BECOMES DOMINANT AND REPLACES THE DISAPPEARING INNER ONE. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT THE 12 HOUR TIME FRAME. SURPRISINGLY THE GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES HAVE THIS SCENARIO...WHICH THE SHIPS DOES NOT. BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS HAVE KARL BACK TO MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT THE 12 TO 24 HOUR TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE POSSIBLE. FORECASTER JARVINEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.2N 41.3W 100 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.6N 42.8W 90 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 44.8W 105 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.2N 46.7W 110 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 19.3N 48.1W 115 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 49.4W 115 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 28.0N 48.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 24/0000Z 34.0N 44.0W 85 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 19-Sep-2004 02:43:25 UTC