ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND 35 KT FRAM SAB. A 16/1950Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED SOME 25-30 KT UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS...WITH ONLY A FEW RAIN-CONTAMINATED 40-KT WINDS. THEREFORE...THE DEPRESSION IS ONLY BEING UPGRADED TO 35-KT TROPICAL STORM KARL. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/12. A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL POSITION WAS MADE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITON ESTIMATES. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO DIG SOUTHWARD...TO VARYING DEGREES...AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF KARL. THIS ALLOWS THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...THE FORECAST MOTION WAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AFTER 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS RTACK...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...AND IS CLOSE TO THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR REASONING. KARL HAS A TIGHT INNER-CORE WIND FIELD AND A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN ALREADY...SO A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR MAY SLOW THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS THROUGH 72 HOURS...WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION RESUMING AGAIN AFTER THAT. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 11.4N 33.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 11.7N 35.5W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.1N 37.4W 55 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 12.5N 39.3W 65 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.2N 41.1W 70 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 44.0W 75 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 18.5N 45.5W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 46.5W 95 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 17-Sep-2004 03:03:16 UTC