Hurricane JEANNE

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HURRICANE JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  44
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 24 2004
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE EYE AND THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN ERODED BY DRY AIR WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED...SUGGESTING THAT THE
CIRCULATION HAS INCREASED OR AT LEAST HAS REMAINED STEADY. THEREFORE
...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 85 KT...WHICH MAY STILL BE A
LITTLE GENEROUS. NEXT RECON FLIGHT WILL AT 24/18Z.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/8.  UPPER-AIR DATA THIS MORNING INDICATE A
DEEP-LAYER HIGH/RIDGE WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA...
WHICH IS SOUTHEAST OF MOST OF THE NHC MODEL FORECAST POSITIONS...
ESPECIALLY THE UKMET...THAT ARE VALID AT THAT TIME. ALSO...THE
MID-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA HAVE BACKED AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS AS AN INVERTED
TROUGH HAS MOVED WESTWARD TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS THIS
FEATURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...SOME WEAK RIDGING SHOULD OCCUR
BEHIND IT OVER AND EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH MAY ACT TO
FORCE JEANNE A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE SHORT TERM. BASED ON
THE TRENDS NOTED IN THE 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK...EVEN THOUGH THE 06Z MODEL
GUIDANCE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE TRICKY. DUE TO THE NEARLY
STATIONARY MOTION OF JEANNE THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...SIGNIFICANT
COLD UPWELLING HAS OCCURRED BENEATH THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...LATEST
SUBJECTIVE SST ANALYSES BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBS INDICATE JEANNE
IS BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM A REGION OF 79F SSTS TOWARD WARMER WATER.
AN EAST-WEST SST THERMAL RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS JUST NORTH OF 26N
LATITUDE...ALONG THE PATH THAT JEANNE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE. SSTS
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 84F OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS WOULD
GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE MAIN
HINDERING INFLUENCE NOW APPEARS TO BE THE DRY AIR SURROUNDING
JEANNE THAT HAS GRADUALLY BEEN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CENTER.
UNTIL THIS DRY AIR MIXES OUT...LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING SHOULD
OCCUR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL...WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION LIKELY NOT OCCURRING
UNTIL JEANNE REACHES THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL
...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR MAY INITIATE A WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER...
JEANNE COULD STILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND/OR
JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL. NOTE...IF EXPECTED LANDFALL OCCURS A LITTLE
LATER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES BEYOND 48
HOURS WOULD BE HIGHER.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 26.2N  72.4W    85 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 26.2N  74.1W    85 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 26.4N  76.6W    90 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 26.8N  78.9W    95 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 27.9N  80.7W    95 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 30.7N  81.9W    65 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 34.5N  78.0W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     29/1200Z 40.0N  69.5W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 
 
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