ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 20 2004 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 020/06. THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE DRY SLOT IN THE INNER-CORE REGION OF JEANNE HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS...A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND HAS PULLED IT MORE NORTHWARD. SO THE FORWARD MOTION IS A BLEND OF ALL THOSE WOBBLES. IN THE LONGER TERM...THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE NHC MODELS TO REMAIN WEAK...EXCEPT FOR THE GFS AND THE GFS-BASED BAM MODELS...AS THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH THAT IS FORECAST TO PICK UP HURRICANE IVAN RUNS OFF AND LEAVES JEANNE BEHIND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF JEANNE IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BLOCK ANY SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD MOTION BY JEANNE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OUTLIER MODELS ARE THE GFS AND BAM MODELS...WHICH TAKE JEANNE DUE EAST...AND THE NAVY COAMPS MODEL ...WHICH MOVES JEANNE DUE WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...EXCEPT TO PUT A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC LOOP IN THE FORECAST AFTER 72 HOURS...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. JEANNE HAS GOOD BANDING STRUCTURE AND THE CYCLONE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS AS EARLY AS TODAY IF IT CAN MIX OUT THE DRY AIR THAT HAS BEEN WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHWARD AND INDUCES WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR ACROSS THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS JUST AND UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/1500Z 26.8N 71.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 21/0000Z 27.3N 71.1W 60 KT 24HR VT 21/1200Z 27.6N 70.3W 65 KT 36HR VT 22/0000Z 27.5N 69.4W 70 KT 48HR VT 22/1200Z 27.0N 69.0W 70 KT 72HR VT 23/1200Z 26.5N 68.5W 70 KT 96HR VT 24/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 25/1200Z 26.5N 69.0W 60 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 20-Sep-2004 14:43:23 UTC