Hurricane JEANNE

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TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 19 2004
 
HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DEFINITELY SHOW THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LARGE AND BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE
ARE CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE
SYSTEM AND THE OUTFLOW IS WELL-ESTABLISHED. HOWEVER...JEANNE LACKS
AN INNER CORE WHICH IS NORMALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER CYCLONE.
THEREFORE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40 KNOTS. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK JEANNE LATER TODAY. GIVEN THE
CURRENT CONDITIONS OF LOW SHEAR AND THE LARGE CIRCULATION...SOME
STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED. HOWEVER...GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
VERY HOSTILE WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO APPROACH JEANNE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS INCREASED ONLY TO 65
KNOTS IN THE FORECAST WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS.
 
THE LARGE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 4
KNOTS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH AND AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE IS CONFIDENCE THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...IN ABOUT 3 DAYS THE STEERING
CURRENTS WILL WEAKEN AND JEANNE IS FORECAST TO MEANDER BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE BAHAMAS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE
LONG RANGE...THE FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. FOR EXAMPLE...RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN ALTERNATING BETWEEN AN EASTWARD AND A
WESTWARD TRACK...AND SOLUTIONS FROM THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
NOT BEEN ANY MORE CONCLUSIVE. THE LATEST FIVE DAY FORECAST POINTS
OF THE UKMET AND GFS MODELS ARE ABOUT 1200 N MI APART. IN SUCH
CASES...THE BEST OPTION IS TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MEANDERING IN 
BETWEEN THE TWO EQUALLY VALID MODEL OPTIONS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/1500Z 23.5N  72.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     20/0000Z 24.8N  72.5W    45 KT
 24HR VT     20/1200Z 26.5N  71.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     21/0000Z 27.5N  70.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     21/1200Z 27.5N  70.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     22/1200Z 26.5N  70.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     23/1200Z 26.0N  70.5W    65 KT
120HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  71.5W    65 KT
 
 
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