ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004 STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STRIPPED THE DEPRESSION OF ALL DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO REVERSE IN A DAY OR SO IT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG IN MAGNITUDE...AND WITH THE SYSTEM OVER 25C WATER IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING CONVECTION EXCEPT IN SHORT SPURTS. DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/5...AND IT WILL PROBABLY SLOW FURTHER NOW THAT IT IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE REMNANT CLOUD SWIRL WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 36.6N 33.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 37.0N 32.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 10/1200Z 37.0N 31.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 11/0000Z 36.5N 31.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 11/1200Z 36.0N 31.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 09-Sep-2004 14:42:59 UTC