Tropical Depression TEN
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 09 2004
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STRIPPED THE DEPRESSION OF ALL DEEP
CONVECTION...AND THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNCLASSIFIABLE USING THE
DVORAK TECHNIQUE. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO
REVERSE IN A DAY OR SO IT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG IN MAGNITUDE...AND
WITH THE SYSTEM OVER 25C WATER IT WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAINTAINING
CONVECTION EXCEPT IN SHORT SPURTS. DISSIPATION OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 060/5...AND
IT WILL PROBABLY SLOW FURTHER NOW THAT IT IS A SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE REMNANT CLOUD SWIRL WILL
BECOME TRAPPED UNDERNEATH LOW-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT
WITH THE GFDL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/1500Z 36.6N 33.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 37.0N 32.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 10/1200Z 37.0N 31.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 11/0000Z 36.5N 31.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 11/1200Z 36.0N 31.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
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