ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 56 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE EYE OF IVAN CROSSED THE COAST AROUND 0700Z JUST WEST OF GULF SHORES ALABAMA AS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY NOW IS 100 KNOTS AND BECAUSE IVAN IS ALREADY INLAND...FURTHER WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SINCE IVAN IS SO LARGE AND INTENSE...IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WELL INLAND...UP TO ABOUT 150 MILES ALONG ITS TRACK. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 010 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER....IVAN IS EXPECTED TO BE BLOCKED BY A DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS IVAN STALLING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN THAT AREA. OBVIOUSLY THIS COULD BE A MAJOR FLOOD EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE COMING DAYS. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 30.9N 87.7W 100 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 32.5N 87.2W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/0600Z 34.7N 86.2W 35 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 17/1800Z 36.0N 85.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/0600Z 37.5N 83.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/0600Z 37.5N 83.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 20/0600Z 36.5N 83.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATING $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 16-Sep-2004 08:53:35 UTC