ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2004 AN EVALUATION OF THE DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS SUGGESTS THAT IVAN HAS MAINTAINED ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. DROPSONDES THROUGHOUT THE MISSION HAVE SHOWN A MODEST DROP IN PRESSURE FROM 969 MB TO 963 MB. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MEASURED WAS 106 KT...CORRESPONDING TO A SURFACE WIND OF 85 KT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 KT TO 90 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/18. RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT PROVIDED A FIX TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE SOON...AS UNIVERSALLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE. DUE IN PART TO A MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THERE IS A DIFFERENCE OF OPINION IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. THE GFS...UKMET...AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE BRING IVAN WELL SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENNINSULA. NOGAPS AND THE GFDL BRING IVAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND IS LINE WITH THE CLOSELY PACKED MODEL CONSENSUS POINTS. A NOAA JET IN IVAN THIS EVENING HAS FOUND THE EXISTENCE OF A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE STORM. THIS MAY HELP EXPLAIN THE WEAKENING OF IVAN THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. IVAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT PROCEEDS TO THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SINCE THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS IVAN AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR LAND AREAS...THE INTENSITY OF IVAN IN THE LATER PERIODS ARE MAINTAINED. FORECASTER LAWRENCE/HENNON FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0300Z 11.2N 57.2W 90 KT 12HR VT 07/1200Z 11.8N 59.8W 95 KT 24HR VT 08/0000Z 12.7N 62.9W 100 KT 36HR VT 08/1200Z 13.7N 66.1W 105 KT 48HR VT 09/0000Z 14.7N 69.1W 110 KT 72HR VT 10/0000Z 17.2N 74.3W 115 KT 96HR VT 11/0000Z 19.5N 78.7W 115 KT 120HR VT 12/0000Z 21.5N 82.4W 115 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 07-Sep-2004 03:12:55 UTC