ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004 FINAL T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INDICATE THAT IVAN HAS WEAKENED A BIT OVERNIGHT. LATEST IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD FILLED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST...275/20. THE CONSENSUS OF FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A VERY SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE STEERING IVAN INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY TWO AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA ON DAY FOUR. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH DAY FIVE WITH NOGAPS TO THE RIGHT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE AND THE UKMET TO THE LEFT OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GUNS AND GUNA. IVAN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS REACHING 130 KT IN 48 HOURS...THIS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE DIFFICULTY IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST LIES AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. INTERACTION OF IVAN WITH HISPANIOLA WILL RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM...JUST HOW MUCH REMAINS TO BE SEEN. A BRIEF EVALUATION OF CLIMATOLOGY LOOKING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES WITH SIMILAR TRACKS INDICATES THAT SYSTEM S PASSING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER ENCOUNTER LIMITED DEGRADATION IN INTENSITY BEFORE EMERGING W OF THE ISLAND. BEARING THIS IN MIND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD A BIT HIGHER THAN SHIPS BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFDL AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. FORECASTER HOLWEG/STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 10.8N 51.6W 110 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 11.6N 54.3W 115 KT 24HR VT 07/0600Z 12.3N 57.5W 120 KT 36HR VT 07/1800Z 13.2N 60.7W 125 KT 48HR VT 08/0600Z 14.3N 63.5W 130 KT 72HR VT 09/0600Z 16.8N 69.1W 130 KT 96HR VT 10/0600Z 19.5N 73.5W 80 KT 120HR VT 11/0600Z 22.5N 77.0W 95 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 09:02:53 UTC