ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 ...CORRECT TO SHOW INLAND AT 120HR ONLY... THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REPORT THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF IVAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND DATA T-NUMBERS GAVE AN INTENSITY OF ABOUT 100 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT EVEN THIS ESTIMATE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY BUT WE SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELLING OFF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTIES. NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1700Z 10.1N 46.6W 100 KT 12HR VT 06/0000Z 10.6N 48.7W 110 KT 24HR VT 06/1200Z 11.5N 52.3W 115 KT 36HR VT 07/0000Z 12.4N 55.9W 120 KT 48HR VT 07/1200Z 13.3N 59.4W 120 KT 72HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 65.5W 120 KT 96HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 71.0W 120 KT 120HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 75.0W 70 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 17:02:52 UTC