ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 50 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 2004 NOW THAT FRANCES HAS MOVED OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO...THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY HAS STEADILY INCREASED NEAR THE TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE LAST RECON REPORT AT AROUND 05Z INDICATED A RAGGED EYE WAS TRYING TO FORM...WHICH HAS ALSO BEEN NOTED IN DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM TALLAHASSEE AND TAMPA. THE BANDING FEATURES TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND CONVERSIONS AND A DROPSONDE REPORT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10 BASED ON RADAR AND RECON OBSERVATIONS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FRANCES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS EAST-WEST ALONG 32N LATITUDE. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE IN THE MDOELS IS HOW SHARP OF A TURN FRANCES WILL MAKE UPON REACHING 32N. THE GFS APPEARS TO MAKE TOO SHARP OF A NORTHEASTWARD TURN GIVEN THE CURRENT LARGE DIAMETER OF FRANCES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS CLOSE THE GUNA MODEL CONSENSUS. NOW THAT THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS BACK OVER WARM WATER...SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. WATER TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 83-84F AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL QUITE IMPRESSIVE. FRANCES COULD REACH MINIMAL CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE STRENGTH JUST AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE GIVEN THE TIGHTER INNER-CORE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AND THE RELATIVELY LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 981 MB...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A 75-KT HURRICANE. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 28.7N 83.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 06/1800Z 29.9N 84.8W 65 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 07/0600Z 31.2N 85.5W 40 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1800Z 32.4N 85.8W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 08/0600Z 33.9N 85.6W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 09/0600Z 37.8N 83.0W 20 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 10/0600Z 42.5N 78.0W 20 KT...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 11/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 06-Sep-2004 09:02:50 UTC