ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 47 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 RADAR DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF FRANCES CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND FAR AWAY FROM THE CENTER IN PRACTICALLY ALL QUADRANTS. IN FACT... GRAND BAHAMA IS STILL REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 40 TO 45 KNOTS IN FEEDER BANDS OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE BETWEEN THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND THEN EMERGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 80 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER LAND...BUT IT COULD THEN REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS ONCE OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE FRANCES HAS A LARGE WIND FIELD AND IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/1500Z 27.7N 81.2W 80 KT INLAND 12HR VT 06/0000Z 28.2N 82.3W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/1200Z 29.0N 83.9W 65 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 07/0000Z 30.3N 85.2W 35 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/1200Z 32.0N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/1200Z 35.0N 85.5W 25 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 09/1200Z 38.5N 82.5W 20 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 10/1200Z 42.0N 79.0W 20 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 14:42:51 UTC