ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004 FRANCES IS JUST INLAND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA WEST OF STUART. THE LAST REPORT FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 960 MB RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. SINCE THAT OSERVATION...A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 963 MB WAS REPORTED BY THE FLORIDA COASTAL MONITORING PROGRAM TOWER AT PORT SALERNO FLORIDA. DOPPLER VELOCITIES AT ABOUT 5000 FEET HAVE ALSO DECREASED TO AROUND 105 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 85 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/07. A SOLID RIDGE REMAINS TO THE WEST THROUGH NORTH OF FRANCES. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLCCE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...SO THERE MAY BE WOBBLES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM TIME TO TIME...AND EVEN A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL MOTION SHOULD BE A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK LIKE THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER 24 HOURS...A STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY ERODE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE...ALLOWING FRANCES TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BY 96-120 HOURS...FRANCES MAY MERGE WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND CEASE TO EXIST AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF FRANCES BACK OVER THE VERY WARM WATER OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER LAND...THE LARGE CIRCULATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED...ESPECIALLY ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RE-STRENGTHENING BY 36 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FRANCES COULD REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY BY 36 HOURS IF IT TAKES A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND REMAINS OVER THE WARM GULF OF MEXICO LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 05/0900Z 27.2N 80.5W 85 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 05/1800Z 27.9N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 06/0600Z 28.8N 83.6W 50 KT...OVER GULF OF MEXICO 36HR VT 06/1800Z 29.9N 84.8W 60 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 07/0600Z 31.5N 85.9W 35 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 08/0600Z 34.0N 86.5W 30 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 09/0600Z 37.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 10/0600Z 42.0N 80.5W 25 KT...INLAND $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Sep-2004 09:02:47 UTC