ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2004 THIS MORNING...A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS UNABLE TO FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN EARL. THIS IS ALSO THE CASE WITH A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. SO EARL HAS DEGENERATED INTO AN OPEN TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 22 KT. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE ARE IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE WAVE TO RE-INTENSIFY INTO A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM HEADS FOR THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED FOR TOMORROW MORNING. FORECASTER LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 71.0W WITH 35 KT WINDS $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Aug-2004 14:22:30 UTC