ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004 DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS BEEN MOVING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK SO THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY. THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 285/16. THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CURVE TO THE RIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYLONE. THIS IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...WITH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW SHARP THE CURVE WILL BE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ONLY SMALL CHANGES IN THIS CURVE WILL HAVE IMPORTANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE IMPACT OF CHARLEY ON SOUTH FLORIDA. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE EARLY GOING...BUT ESSENTIALLY BLENDS INTO THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 24 HOURS. THE SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD LOCATION AND SLOWER FORWARD SPEED RESULTS IN THE SAME FORECAST POINT AT 48 HOURS AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA HAVE NOT YET BEEN ISSUED. THESE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWED A CLOSED EYEWALL AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 995 MB...ALTHOUGH ON A SUBSEQUENT FIX IT WAS 996 MB. BASED ON FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS...THE CYCLONE IS NEARING HURRICANE INTENSITY. CHARLEY LOOKS WELL ORGANIZED ON MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES. THERE IS WELL-ESTABLISHED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW FOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING WILL BE LAND. HOWEVER THE LAND MASSES OF JAMAICA...AND EVEN WESTERN CUBA...ARE NOT LIKELY TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS STRENGTHENING IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT. AS ALWAYS...THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY. CHARLEY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A STRONGER HURRICANE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THAN INDICATED HERE. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 16.5N 76.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 17.9N 78.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 20.0N 80.9W 75 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 22.7N 82.0W 80 KT...ON COAST OF CUBA 48HR VT 13/1200Z 25.0N 82.5W 80 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND 96HR VT 15/1200Z 44.0N 71.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1200Z 51.0N 55.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 11-Aug-2004 14:52:32 UTC