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Hurricane ALEX (Text)

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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 05 2004
 
THE EYE OF ALEX IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO WARM AS ALEX BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COLDER WATERS.  LATEST
DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.5/5.5.  USING AN
AVERAGE OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS TO ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY OF
WEAKENING SYSTEMS YIELDS 90 KT FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. 
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...AND ALEX IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER 17C WATER IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.

ALEX CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND THE THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
065/39. ALEX REMAINS EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD CONTINUE
ON AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR 12 HR OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST.  WHILE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS UNUSUALLY
WELL-CLUSTERED...THE MODELS APPEAR TO ALREADY BE BEHIND THE CYCLONE
AND SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/2100Z 43.6N  52.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     06/0600Z 45.8N  45.7W    75 KT
 24HR VT     06/1800Z 47.0N  35.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     07/0600Z 47.0N  25.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED INTO EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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