Hurricane ALEX

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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED AUG 04 2004
 
ALEX NOW HAS A WELL-DEFINED EYE WITHIN A WIDE SYMMETRIC RING OF
CONVECTION AND WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW IN ALL DIRECTIONS.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 90 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS 5.0 DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
WALL OF THE GULF STREAM OVER SSTS BETWEEN 26C AND 27C.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.  THEREAFTER...IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS...BUT IT MAY REMAIN
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH UNTIL BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 36
HOURS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 075/16...A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT THAN EARLIER TODAY.  ALL NHC MODEL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
GRADUAL ACCELERATION WITHIN A STRONG WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE CURRENT
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN MORE TO THE
EAST.  MOST DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH A MIDDLE
LATITUDE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME
ABSORBED A DAY OR TWO LATER.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      04/2100Z 37.9N  67.5W    90 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 39.0N  63.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 42.0N  56.4W    80 KT
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 44.6N  47.4W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     06/1800Z 45.4N  37.5W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     07/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
 
 
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