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Hurricane ALEX (Text)


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HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 03 2004
 
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MISSION EARLIER THIS MORNING
FOUND 81 KT WINDS AT A FLIGHT LEVEL OF 850 MB...ALONG WITH A
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 983 MB.  SINCE THAT TIME...THE WILMINGTON AND
NEWPORT WSR-88D RADARS HAVE SHOWN 85 KT WINDS AT ABOUT 8000-9000
FT.  BASED ON THIS...ALEX HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 70 KT HURRICANE. 
THE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYEWALL IN CONSTANT FLUX...OCCASIONALLY
FULLY CLOSED AND OCCASIONALLY OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST...LIKELY DUE TO
UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 045/9.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ALEX IS
EMBEDDED IN LARGE-SCALE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AND ALL GUIDANCE SAYS
THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE. 
HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE IS NOW FORECASTING A MORE EASTERLY
MOTION AFTER 24 HR THAN SEEN IN THE PREVIOUS RUNS...AND WITH SOME
SERIOUS DISAGREEMENT IN SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS THUS
A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  IT IS ALSO SLOWER...A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FASTER NOGAPS AND UKMET AND THE SLOWER GFS
AND GFDL.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS ALEX
OFFHSORE...ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE
CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER TODAY.  SUCH A
LEFT JOG COULD OCCUR AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES TO THE WEST
OF ALEX AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

ALEX IS CURRENTLY SHOWING GOOD OUTFLOW IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND
RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HR AND START TO SHEAR
ALEX.  THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY FOR 12-24 HR MORE...WHICH IS
REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER THAT...INCREASING
SHEAR...COOLER WATER NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM...AND THE START OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SHOULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.  ALEX IS
FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HR AND BE ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 96 HR.  ALEX COULD PEAK AT 80 KT OR SO
IN BETWEEN FORECAST TIMES.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 33.5N  76.9W    70 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 34.6N  75.6W    75 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 36.3N  72.6W    75 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 37.8N  68.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 39.4N  63.4W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/0600Z 44.0N  50.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/0600Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Aug-2004 09:02:11 UTC