Hurricane OLAF

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE OLAF ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON OCT 06 2003

...OLAF CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS
MARIAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST
SOUTH OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND
ON MONDAY.  INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
OLAF.
 
AT 2 AM PDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OLAF WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 106.0 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
190 KM...SOUTH OF CABO CORRIENTES.
 
OLAF IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH...11 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF OLAF PARALLEL TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO.  HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE
FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN THE HURRICANE
WARNING AREA.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO  90 MILES...150 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  992 MB...29.29 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.
 
RAINBANDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MEXICO TODAY.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
  
REPEATING THE 2 AM PDT POSITION...18.7 N...106.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 992 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 AM PDT.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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