Hurricane ISABEL

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TROPICAL STORM ISABEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  51B
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
9 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2003
 
...ISABEL WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

AT 9 PM...0100Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING. 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA TO MORICHES INLET NEW YORK...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...CHESAPEAKE BAY...THE TIDAL POTOMAC...AND
DELAWARE BAY.
 
AT 9 PM EDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISABEL WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 37.0 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST...
OR ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF EMPORIA VIRGINIA.
 
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. A TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN VIRGINIA TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH ISABEL WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER
LAND...UNUSUALLY STRONG WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...MAY
BE EXPERIENCED WELL INLAND TO THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...AS WELL AS ON HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS AND OTHER
STRUCTURES.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  968 MB...28.58 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...MAY STILL
OCCUR ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS
STILL POSSIBLE IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.  STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL.
 
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND
SOUTHEASTERN MARYLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
REPEATING THE 9 PM EDT POSITION...37.0 N... 77.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 70 MPH. 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 968 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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