ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 47A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003 ...HURRICANE ISABEL RIGHT ON TRACK...HEADING FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS UNCERTAIN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE COASTLINE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ISABEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 315 MILES. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT RIVERS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL. THERE IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 73.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB. FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:06 UTC