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Hurricane ISABEL


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  47A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003
 
...HURRICANE ISABEL RIGHT ON TRACK...HEADING FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST... 

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH
POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
 
AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.
 
ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...THE PRECISE TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IS
UNCERTAIN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA WELL
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
ALREADY APPROACHING THE COASTLINE.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ISABEL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE.  A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 315 MILES.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA SHORTLY.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL.
 
THERE IS THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...31.5 N... 73.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 955 MB.
 
FOR STORM-RELATED INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE...AND STATEMENTS FROM
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA


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