ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER 49 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2003 ...LARGE CATEGORY TWO ISABEL BEARING DOWN ON THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS. ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED EASTWARD FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO MORICHES INLET NEW YORK. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO MORICHES INLET...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC. AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 145 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE DETERIORATING OVER A LARGE AREA WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. HURRICANE CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING ONTO THE COAST IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING. SUSTAINED HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD ALSO EXTEND INLAND UP TO 150 MILES ALONG THE PATH OF ISABEL. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES ISABEL A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL...AND WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES. NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 54 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES. NOAA BUOY 41002 RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 978.8 MB...28.90 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT RIVERS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL. THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA TODAY REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...33.1 N... 74.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE AND STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 07-Feb-2005 16:50:06 UTC