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Hurricane ISABEL


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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ISABEL ADVISORY NUMBER  48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2003

...OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE ISABEL MOVING ONSHORE...WEATHER SHOULD
GRADUALLY WORSEN...  

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA...INCLUDING PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS...AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF SMITH POINT. A HURRICANE
WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.
 
ALL PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR TO
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO
SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH
POINT NORTHWARD...AND FOR THE TIDAL POTOMAC.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ISABEL WAS LOCATED BY
AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED PRIOR
TO LANDFALL.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ISABEL IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVER A LARGE AREA
WELL BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.  TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY SPREADING ACROSS THE COASTLINE. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 315 MILES. A BUOY LOCATED WEST OF THE HURRICANE RECENTLY REPORTED
WIND GUSTS TO 74 MPH AND 32 FOOT WAVES.
 
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH EXTREMELY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE
COAST. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 8 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS EXPECTED IN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE TIDAL PORTIONS OF ADJACENT
RIVERS.
 
STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISABEL.
 
THERE IS A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES OVER EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA ON THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N... 73.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...105 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 956 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM
EDT.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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