Hurricane ISABEL
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HURRICANE ISABEL PROBABILITIES NUMBER 40
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON SEP 15 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ISABEL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU SEP 18 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.4N 71.7W 46 X X X 46 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X 6 9 15
29.8N 72.5W 21 7 X X 28 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 5 10 15
31.5N 73.7W 1 15 4 1 21 NORFOLK VA X X 1 12 13
SAVANNAH GA X X 1 3 4 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 10 10
CHARLESTON SC X X 2 6 8 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 7 7
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 4 7 11 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 4 4
WILMINGTON NC X X 5 9 14 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED
D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
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