Tropical Depression TWELVE
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2003
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2003
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
29.2N 84.5W 37 1 X X 38 WILMINGTON NC X X 1 7 8
29.5N 82.5W 11 9 2 X 22 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 6 6
30.0N 80.5W X 9 5 2 16 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 5 5
MUCM 214N 779W X X X 2 2 NORFOLK VA X X X 4 4
MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 1 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X X 2 2
MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 1 2 KEY WEST FL X 2 3 2 7
MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2 MARCO ISLAND FL X 7 4 1 12
MYSM 241N 745W X X X 4 4 FT MYERS FL 1 10 2 1 14
MYEG 235N 758W X X 1 3 4 VENICE FL 4 10 2 1 17
MYAK 241N 776W X X 2 4 6 TAMPA FL 8 11 1 1 21
MYNN 251N 775W X X 4 4 8 CEDAR KEY FL 18 6 1 X 25
MYGF 266N 787W X 2 6 4 12 ST MARKS FL 26 2 1 X 29
MARATHON FL X 2 4 2 8 APALACHICOLA FL 39 X X X 39
MIAMI FL X 4 5 2 11 PANAMA CITY FL 40 X X X 40
W PALM BEACH FL X 6 5 2 13 PENSACOLA FL 28 X X X 28
FT PIERCE FL X 8 5 2 15 MOBILE AL 9 2 X 1 12
COCOA BEACH FL 1 10 4 1 16 GULFPORT MS 3 2 1 X 6
DAYTONA BEACH FL 2 11 3 2 18 BURAS LA 3 1 X X 4
JACKSONVILLE FL 2 11 3 2 18 GULF 29N 85W 44 X X X 44
SAVANNAH GA X 5 6 3 14 GULF 29N 87W 65 X X X 65
CHARLESTON SC X 1 5 6 12 GULF 28N 89W 29 X X X 29
MYRTLE BEACH SC X X 3 7 10
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI
C FROM 1AM FRI TO 1PM FRI
D FROM 1PM FRI TO 1PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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