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Hurricane PATRICIA


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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
2100Z FRI OCT 24 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.3W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 113.3W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 113.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 113.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.3N 113.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.5N 113.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 113.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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