Hurricane PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
0300Z THU OCT 23 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 109.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 108.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 13.9N 111.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 14.9N 112.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 15.8N 113.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 109.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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