Hurricane PATRICIA

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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
1500Z WED OCT 22 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 106.9W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 106.9W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.6N 108.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.3N 109.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.1N 110.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 106.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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