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Hurricane PATRICIA (Text)

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HURRICANE PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
0300Z WED OCT 22 2003
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.5W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 105.5W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 105.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.5N 106.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 13.3N 107.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 105.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH 
 
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