Tropical Storm PATRICIA

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TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162003
2100Z MON OCT 20 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.7W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 101.7W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 101.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 10.9N 103.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 11.6N 104.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.6N 106.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 13.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 15.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 17.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 101.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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