Hurricane OLAF
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HURRICANE OLAF FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152003
1500Z MON OCT 06 2003
AT 8 AM PDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DOWNGRADED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO PUNTA SAN TELMO TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING...AND DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM
MANZANILLO NORTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING THE ISLAS MARIAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO
PUNTA SAN TELMO.
AT 8 AM PDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FROM NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO MAZATLAN. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 36
HOURS.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 106.1W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 106.1W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.1W
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.3N 106.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.2N 106.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.3N 106.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.0N 108.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 106.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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