Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
0900Z SAT OCT 18 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  48.5W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  80SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  48.5W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  48.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.9N  48.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.4N  49.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N  49.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.6N  50.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.6N  51.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N  53.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 22.5N  54.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  48.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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