Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
0300Z FRI OCT 17 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  47.8W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  25SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  80SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  47.8W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  47.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.4N  48.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  25SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.4N  49.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.2N  50.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N  51.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N  52.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N  53.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.0N  54.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N  47.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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