Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
0300Z THU OCT 16 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  45.2W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N  45.2W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N  44.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.8N  45.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.9N  46.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.0N  47.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.0N  48.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.0N  49.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 19.0N  50.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.5N  51.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N  45.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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