Tropical Storm NICHOLAS

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TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL192003
2100Z WED OCT 15 2003
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  44.5W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  35 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  44.5W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N  44.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 13.0N  45.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.1N  46.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.3N  47.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.4N  47.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.5N  48.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 275 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 375 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 18.5N  49.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 19.5N  51.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  44.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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